Equity research built from the filing up, not the headline down.
We read the 10-Ks and 10-Qs, build the model, and write down the assumptions we used to get to fair value — so you can check our work instead of taking our word for it.
One free note most weeks. No spam, unsubscribe anytime. See our research disclaimer before relying on anything we publish.
How a note gets written
MethodStart with the filing
Every note begins in the 10-K or 10-Q, not the press release. We flag where management's framing and the numbers in the footnotes disagree.
Build the model in the open
Revenue build, margin bridge, and a discounted cash flow with the growth and discount assumptions printed on the page — not buried in a black box.
Show the margin of safety
We compare our fair value estimate to the market price and say, plainly, how much cushion that leaves — and what would have to be true for us to be wrong.
Latest research
Four live notes are out. Every note is free to read in full, with a downloadable PDF.
The Marzetti Company: fair value $160.33 against a $104.47 price
A DCF-based BUY, with the economic-profit cross-check as the dissent that matters. Scenarios, peers, shareholders and every source.
Read the note →⇩ Download the MZTI PDF report
German American Bancorp: fair value $40.57 against a $48.79 price
A HOLD on an excess-return model, with the price near the top of the range and the base case below it. Tangible book, peers, shareholders and every source.
Read the note →⇩ Download the GABC PDF report
Donaldson Company: fair value $88.79 against an $87.56 price
A DCF-based HOLD, with peer multiples from 13.5x to 33.9x earnings that cannot settle the question. Guidance, Facet, shareholders and every source.
Read the note →Choice Hotels International: fair value $43.58 against a $105.64 price
A DCF-based SELL — and why the closest peer, Wyndham, points the other way. Thesis, risks, sensitivity grid and every source.
Read the note →Interactive valuation model
Calculate intrinsic fair value using normalized earnings multiples or a multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with an explicit margin of safety.
Educational model based on user-supplied parameters. Multi-stage cash flows discount near-term projection periods separately from long-term perpetuity terminal value.
Inside every note
AnatomyThesis
What the market is missing, in plain language.
Risks
What would have to be true for us to be wrong.
Model
Revenue build, margin bridge and DCF with assumptions printed.
Sources
Every figure traced to a filing, transcript or public dataset.
Straight answers
What's free, what isn't, and what we do and don't do.
Is NovaRock research really free?
Yes. Every report we publish is free to read in full — thesis, risks, cited figures and a Buy, Hold or Sell call. A $25/month subscription tier launches in Winter 2026 to add extra reports on top; it will not gate anything that is already free.
Is this investment advice?
No. NovaRock Global Research publishes general-interest financial research. It is not personalized advice, a solicitation to trade, or a registered investment adviser. Read the research disclaimer for details.
Who can subscribe?
We cover U.S.-listed equities for international readers. The service is not marketed or offered to residents of India, and subscribers confirm they are outside India when they sign up.
Where do the numbers come from?
From the 10-K and 10-Q first, then transcripts and public datasets, each cited inline. Where we make a forecasting assumption rather than cite a fact, we say so on the page.
When do live coverage notes start?
Our live notes, The Marzetti Company (MZTI), German American Bancorp (GABC), Donaldson Company (DCI) and Choice Hotels International (CHH), are published now, with a downloadable PDF. More follow in the free letter, and the premium tier launches in Winter 2026.
Can I request coverage of a company?
Yes — use the contact form. We read every request but cannot guarantee coverage, and we never accept payment for coverage or a favorable conclusion.
Subscribe to the Margin of Safety Letter
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One free note most weeks. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.